Climate

A recent strike narrowly missed slave trade archives in Barbados, and experts warn more and worse is to come as global heating intensifies storms

When the Barbados National Archives, home to one of the world’s most significant collections of documents from the transatlantic slave trade, reported in June that it had been struck by lightning, it received widespread sympathy and offers of support locally and internationally.

A section of the 60-year-old building, Block D, located on the grounds of the “Lazaretto” (the island’s former colony for people with leprosy), caught fire, and sustained serious damage. Official documents including hospital and school records were lost. “It was not just paper that was in the building, but documents that have stories about our families and ancestors,” says the chief archivist, Ingrid Thompson.

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2024 is another year of new extremes in climate: this year’s summer was the hottest on record. In particular, July 22 will be remembered as the hottest day recorded, when the global average temperature hit 62.9°F according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Heat waves, floods, storms, and wildfires are breaking records and impacted nearly everyone in the United States and its Caribbean territories.  

As we have been doing since 2022, this year we tracked alerts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) for these extreme weather events during Danger Season—the period between May and October when climate change increases the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. By mid-August everyone in the US lived in a county that had experienced at least one of these events.  

We saw that climate change is driving a longer Danger Season that affects everyone in the US. That means that the work of key federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Weather Service (NWS) is more critical than ever. They must be allowed to continue providing accurate and timely forecasts of extreme weather events because these forecasts save American lives.  

According to a proposed policy framework for the Trump Administration, NOAA and other federal agencies will be gutted, leaving us with little protection against the more intense and more frequent extreme weather we experienced this danger season and will continue to experience as global temperatures rise. 

In recent years, Danger Season has ended in October, but in yet another sign of worsening climate change, the Northeast is still facing fire weather amid summer temperatures in November. Here’s what it has brought so far. 

Heat

The 2024 Danger Season opened in late May with a nearly week-long heat wave in southern Texas during Memorial Day weekend, when millions in the US kick off the summer. The border cities of Brownsville and McAllen set daily records at 100°F and 102°F, respectively, while Del Río broke its own monthly record of 109°F, then a few days later it broke that record when temperatures hit 112°F.   

June 19 marked the first-ever excessive heat wave on record for northeast Maine in a nearly nine-day heat wave that stretched from Ohio to the mid-Atlantic. Impacts were expected on transportation infrastructure, as Amtrak warned travelers they may experience delays as trains need to run at slower speeds when tracks get too hot.  

On July 8, the Third Avenue bridge that connects the Bronx and Manhattan in New York City was stuck in the open position because the high temperatures expanded the steel, prompting city crews to hose down the bridge with water to cool it down. 

From June 27 to July 14, heat wave conditions persisted along the West Coast and Pacific Northwest. In Death Valley National Park, temperatures of 128°F grounded rescue helicopters that could not safely fly to rescue motorcyclists affected by heat. And in Washington state, triple-digit temperatures expanded the asphalt along a county highway, causing delays and emergency road repairs.  

However, these reports do not reveal the profound inequities in who is most exposed to climate impacts. I combined data from our Danger Season tracker with population disadvantage data to assess inequities in population exposure. I found a few concerning things.  

While counties with at least 25 percent disadvantaged population experienced, on average, 18 extreme heat alerts during this year’s Danger Season, counties with lower fractions of disadvantaged populations experienced 12 heat alerts. Counties with at least 25 percent disadvantaged populations and the highest numbers of heat alerts are in Arizona and California, as seen in the table below. Riverside County and Imperial County, both in California top the list with 84 and 77 heat alerts.  

Counties with at least 25 percent disadvantaged populations and the highest frequency of heat
alerts during the 2024 Danger Season  Wildfires

Wildfires raged on as well this Danger Season. To give an idea, 404 wildfires—threatening 1.6 million acres—were active in the US as of October 21, 2024 according to American Forests. The Park Fire, affecting Tehama and Butte counties in northern California, started on July 24 (allegedly caused by an arsonist) and burned nearly half a million acres on days when there were already wildfire weather and heat alerts in these and adjacent counties.  

The National Centers for Environmental Information tallies the number of fires and acreage burned; as of this writing, data are available to assess Danger Season impacts between May and August. These show a clear seasonal increasing trend in burned acres per fire, indicating that as peak wildfire season was reached in August, wildfires became more and more destructive.  

Wildfires became more destructive, consuming more acres per fire, as peak wildfire season advanced this Danger Season

The top ten counties with at least 25 percent of their population at disadvantage and number of fire weather alerts in the 2024 Danger Season are in Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah. Harney County, OR, tops the list with 56 fire weather alerts.  

Counties with at least 25 percent disadvantaged populations and the highest frequency of fire weather alerts during the 2024 Danger Season  Flooding and Storms

Near-record warm ocean temperatures, a reduction in Atlantic trade winds and wind shear, and the development of La Niña in the Pacific led NOAA to issue an above-normal hurricane season forecast. And the forecast was accurate—17 named storms. Rapid intensification was the defining characteristic of hurricanes this Danger Season. The list is long, but here are some of the most impactful storms.  

Beryl was a long-lived tropical cyclone (June 28 July 11), strengthening into a Category 5 over the Caribbean and making landfall not once, but twice over the Yucatán Peninsula before making landfall as a tropical storm about 100 miles southwest of Houston. Beryl was also the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record, and poured 3-6 inches in southeast Texas and up to 2 inches in central and southern parts of Louisiana.  

On August 13, Tropical Storm Ernesto rapidly intensified right before grazing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Although Ernesto did not make landfall in Puerto Rico or the nearby archipelagos, the storm still delivered winds reaching 50 miles per hour (mph, or 80.5 kilometers per hour) and heavy rainfall of up to 10 inches (25.5 cm) across Puerto Rico.  

By the morning of Wednesday, August 14, around 728,000 customers—nearly half of the island—were left without electricity. Many communities also lost access to drinking water, as the water supply systems depend on electric pumps. Flood warnings were issued throughout the island due to the storm’s impact. This storm highlighted the fragile state of the badly-run energy infrastructure in Puerto Rico. 

Hurricane Helene rapidly intensified from 45 to 80 mph (72.4 to 128.7 km/h), and it was blowing at 140 mph (225.3 kph) less than 36 hours later when it made landfall on September 26 as a Category 4 in the Florida Gulf Coast. In states such as North Carolina, the hurricane battered communities with high percentages of people living with disabilities, people of advanced age, or living in mobile homes, all markers of populations that face significant challenges to recover from such disasters.  

And in perhaps the saddest and most sobering reminder that we are running out of places to be safe from climate impacts, the community of Asheville, NC, more than 500 miles from where Helene made landfall, suffered more than 100 deaths from mudslides and other disasters caused by the storm. 

The ninth hurricane of the 2024 season in the Atlantic was Hurricane Milton, which rapidly intensified into a Category 5 on October 7. Milton resulted in at least 24 fatalities, and brought at least 19 tornadoes to Florida.  

These storms and other precipitation activity across the country brought large numbers of flood alerts this Danger Season. The highest number of flood alerts were in counties in Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. These counties have high percentages of people at socio-economic disadvantage. Orange County, TX, tops the list with 131 flood alerts this Danger Season. Newton County, Texas is in third place with 111 flood alerts, and 100% of its population is in disadvantaged status.  

Counties with at least 25 percent disadvantaged populations and the highest frequency of flood alerts during the 2024 Danger Season  Accurate weather forecasts helped save lives from the destruction of Helene and Milton

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) initial forecast for Hurricane Milton predicted a landfall location just 12 miles from the spot where the storm actually came ashore four days later.  This early forecast allowed millions of people to evacuate in advance of the hurricane, which undoubtedly contributed to reducing the loss of life from destructive winds and lethal storm surge.  

We need sustained and increased resources for scientists at key federal agencies such as NOAA and its dependencies (NHC and NWS) to do their job of issuing accurate, timely forecasts of extreme weather events that can minimize the loss of life and property. But if Project 2025 comes to fruition as written, the second Trump administration would break up and downsize NOAA (pro tip for the incoming administration: don’t dismantle NOAA; it’s proven that its science saves lives and property from climate impacts. I just wrote about it here).

This year’s Danger Season showed us that the climate crisis is in full force and worsening, and we need action to reduce global emissions, adapt to the impacts we can’t avoid, and strengthen the country’s scientific capacity to forecast extreme weather events and protect people.  

Day nine of the climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, begins as negotiators work against the clock

As we wait for day nine to get going it is worth looking back at the closing summary from yesterday when the overriding feeling from negotiators was frustration as progress continued to prove elusive. Let’s hope for more positive news today.

Yesterday’s closing summary:

As day eight began, the climate talks entered the phase known as the ‘valley of death’

Raising funds to finance climate fight is feasible, economists say from my colleague Fiona Harvey

Cop was boosted as G20 reaffirms transition from fossil fuels, although some felt the Brazil meeting could have gone much further

Analysis showed that hundreds of lobbyists for industrial agriculture were attending the Cop29 climate summit in Baku

UK, New Zealand, and Colombia join coalition to phase out fossil fuel subsidies

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Data tracks how Earth’s heating has led to rising sea levels and extreme weather – yet there is no sign of emissions slowing

“The era of global boiling has arrived” is what the UN chief, António Guterres, presciently declared last year. In 2024, he has continued to be proven right; a report by the EU’s space programme has found it is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. The scientists found global temperatures for the past 12 months were 1.62C greater than the 1850-1900 average, when humanity started to burn vast volumes of coal, oil and gas. The chart below shows just how quickly global surface temperatures have climbed, and this year is on track to be the first to hit 1.5C above preindustrial temperatures.

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Strongest atmospheric river seen by California, Washington and Oregon this season knocks out power and downs trees

• California and Pacific north-west brace for an atmospheric river – but what is it?

What was expected to be one of the strongest storms in the north-west US in decades arrived on Tuesday evening, knocking out power and downing trees across the region.

The Weather Prediction Center issued excessive rainfall risks beginning on Tuesday and lasting through Friday as the strongest atmospheric river – a large plume of moisture – that California and the Pacific north-west has seen this season bears down on the region. The storm system is considered a “ bomb cyclone”, which occurs when a cyclone intensifies rapidly.

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From my perspective as a 12-year-old, it’s devastating that the protest is getting such a negative reaction from the NSW government

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All year, I have been looking forward to the People’s Blockade of the Newcastle coal port. I’ve been so excited to see the colourful array of kayaks and get to swim and paddle in the harbour with my friends to make our voices heard, and let the government know that we need to do everything we can right now to stop the climate crisis.

I know that Rising Tide has been working incredibly hard to make the blockade a fun and safe experience for everyone, but it feels like instead of listening to our concern about the climate crisis, the state government is doing everything they can to try to stop our “protestival” from going ahead.

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“Esta es mi última cumbre del G20”, dijo el mandatario el lunes en la cumbre del Grupo de los 20 en Brasil. Los líderes mundiales parecían estar dispuestos a seguir adelante sin él.

Australia and Turkey are both lobbying to host Cop31, the world's annual United Nations climate change negotiations planned for 2026. The climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said Australia wants to co-host Cop31 'in partnership with our Pacific family'. Bowen also announced a $50m contribution to loss and damage caused by the climate crisis.

• Paris agreement is working, Australian minister tells Cop29, but much deeper cuts needed by 2035

• Chris Bowen makes last-minute diplomatic stop in Turkey as Australia ramps up bid to host Cop31

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Without action on climate crisis, far greater numbers will also experience floods, wildfires and droughts, according to report

Eight times as many children around the world will be exposed to extreme heatwaves in the 2050s, and three times as many will face river floods compared with the 2000s if current trends continue, according to the UN.

Nearly twice as many children are also expected to face wildfires, with many more living through droughts and tropical cyclones, according to the annual state of the world’s children report.

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As he made his final appearance at global gatherings, including at the Group of 20 summit in Brazil, President Biden lobbied for his foreign policy goals even as leaders shifted attention away from him.

A handful of startups are racing to usher in an era of near-limitless fusion energy, but big questions remain.

The U.N. climate conference, held in a petrostate, is a surreal moment. This darkly funny novel about Baku, oil companies and climate change in the first Trump term helps make sense of it all.

Poor country delegates say classifications that date back to 1992 are obsolete and two countries ‘should be contributing’

China and India should no longer be treated as developing countries in the same way as some of the poorest African nations are, according to a growing number of delegates from poorer country at the Cop29 UN climate talks.

China should take on some additional responsibility for providing financial help to the poorest and most vulnerable, several delegates told the Guardian. India should not be eligible for receiving financial help as it has no trouble attracting investment, some said.

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China has now passed Europe in its historical contribution to global warming. Rich nations say the country should contribute more climate aid.

Cop29 presidency announces new drive to cut methane emissions from waste dumps as G20 reaffirms transition from fossil fuels

The UK government has conceded that Australia was mistakenly included on a list of countries that were expected to sign up to a US-UK civil nuclear deal agreed at Cop29 on Monday, writes Adam Morton, Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor.

The Albanese government flatly denied media reports on Tuesday that it would join the UK and the US in a collaboration to share advanced nuclear technology. The UK and the US announcement said they would speed up work on “cutting-edge nuclear technology”, including small modular reactors, after inking a deal at the Cop29 UN climate summit in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku.

We urge them to use the G20 meeting to send a positive signal of their commitment to address the climate crisis.

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Chris Bowen also pledges A$50m to a fund to help the world’s most vulnerable people to repair the damage from climate breakdown

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The Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, has declared the landmark Paris agreement “is working” as it had brought the world back from “the brink of catastrophic 4C warming”, but argued countries must set the most ambitious emissions targets possible for 2035 to limit worsening global heating.

Giving Australia’s national statement on the conference floor at the Cop29 summit in Azerbaijan, he also pledged A$50m (US$32.5m) towards a global loss and damage fund to help the world’s most vulnerable people to repair the damage from climate breakdown.

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My brother called saying there was a storm. I was waiting, waiting, waiting. This is Elisa’s story

Location Saint-Martin-Vésubie, France

Disaster name Storm Alex, 2020

Elisa is a women’s clothing designer who runs her own label in Montreal, Canada. She was born and grew up in Nice, France, where much of her family remained, but was in Canada with her children and partner when Storm Alex gusted towards France and the mountain village where her mother lived. The storm was a powerful extratropical cyclone that caused extreme flooding around the Mediterranean, killing at least 15 people. Three months’ worth of rain – 50cm – fell on Saint-Martin-Vésubie in one day, 3 October 2020.

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An update on our progress from the Guardian’s head of sustainability

• The Guardian environment pledge 2024
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Five years ago the Guardian made a pledge that we would “play a part, both in our journalism and in our own organisation, to address the climate emergency” with our first annual environment pledge. That commitment reflected our long history of environment reporting and our view that individual companies had to take greater responsibility for their impact on the natural world. We wanted to demonstrate to readers that we were taking the action that our journalism showed was so necessary, and to be transparent about our progress. Today we publish the 2024 pledge.

Since then we have worked hard to measure and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, to understand our impact on nature and to share our results openly with readers. In our latest sustainability report, published last month, we show that our emissions have fallen by 43% since 2020, putting us well on track to achieve our goal of a 67% cut by 2030.

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Nearly 40% of food sector lobbyists have travelled to Baku as part of countries’ delegations

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Hundreds of lobbyists for industrial agriculture are attending the Cop29 climate summit in Baku, analysis shows.

They include representatives from some of the world’s largest agribusiness companies including the Brazilian meatpacker JBS, the animal pharmaceuticals company Elanco, and the food giant PepsiCo, as well as trade groups representing the food sector.

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The tourism industry will be officially recognized at COP29 on Wednesday. Industry leaders signed a climate accord in 2021 to make travel more sustainable, but the results so far are meager.