The Guardian Climate Change

New modelling finds risk to global economies much worse than previously thought, but group of central banks says even this may be an underestimate

The physical shocks caused by climate breakdown will hit global economic growth by a third, according to a risk assessment by a network of central banks.

The rise in the estimated hit to the world’s economies as a result of the shocks from flooding, droughts, temperature rises, and mitigating and adapting to extreme weather was the result of new climate modelling published this year.

Prospects of strong outcome appear dim but there is hope the talks will address pressing issue of climate finance

More than 100 heads of state and government are expected to land in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, over the next few days and the first thing they are likely to notice is the smell of oil. The odour hangs heavy in the air, evidence of the abundance of fossil fuels in this small country on the shores of the Caspian Sea.

Flaring from refineries lights up the night sky, and the city is dotted with diminutive “nodding donkey” oil wells raising and lowering their pistons as they draw from the earth. Even the national symbol is a gas flame, epitomised in the shape of three skyscrapers that tower over the city.

Government must take urgent steps to change UK travel behaviour if carbon dioxide reduction goals are to be met

Europe-wide research has shown Britons are more willing than most Europeans to reduce their use of cars and aeroplanes – an essential requirement if carbon dioxide reduction targets are to be met.

During the Covid pandemic, consumption of petrol, diesel and paraffin plummeted as government restrictions forced people to stay at home – the UK had the third-largest reduction after Austria and Sweden.

On the eve of Cop29 in Baku, António Guterres says dangers are underestimated as irreversible tipping points near

The world is still underestimating the risk of catastrophic climate breakdown and ecosystem collapse, the UN secretary general has warned in the run-up to Cop29, acknowledging that the rise in global heating is on course to soar past 1.5C (2.7F) over pre-industrial levels in the coming years.

Humanity is approaching potentially irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet as global temperatures rise, António Guterres has said, warning that governments are not making the deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions needed to limit warming to safe levels.

Country’s foreign minister says UN climate summits have produced ‘no results’ as Pacific nation takes the rare step of withdrawing from upcoming Cop29

Papua New Guinea’s decision to pull out of an upcoming UN global climate summit due to frustration over “empty promises and inaction” has prompted concern from climate advocates, who fear the move will isolate the Pacific nation and put vital funding at risk.

Prime minister James Marape announced in August the country would not attend Cop29 in “protest at the big nations” for a lack of “quick support to victims of climate change”. Then last week, foreign affairs minister Justin Tckatchenko, confirmed Papua New Guinea would withdraw from high-level talks at the summit, which begins on 11 November in Baku, Azerbaijan, describing it as “a total waste of time”.

Mountain fire in Ventura county has destroyed 132 homes and damaged 88, and fire is 5% contained, officials say

A wind-driven wildfire roared through rural and residential communities north-west of Los Angeles, charring more than 20,500 acres and leveling scores of homes.

The Mountain fire in Ventura county, California, continued to burn on Thursday morning, as footage showed dozens of structures turned to smoldering ruins now lining the streets where neighborhoods once stood.

More than 200 people have died in floods that the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has described as the worst natural disaster in the country's recent history. Thousands of troops and police officers were drafted to help with clean-up and searches. Anger rose among residents who felt abandoned by the government and King Felipe and Queen Letizia were heckled when they visited one of the worst-affected areas

• ‘It can lead to chaos’: false claims and hoaxes surge as Spain’s floods recede

• At least 89 people remain missing after floods in eastern Spain

• ‘There’s so much confrontation’: Valencians sick of political bickering after Spain’s floods

Analysis of 19m flights between 2019 and 2023 reveals 50% rise in emissions, condemned as ‘gratuitous waste’

Private jet flights have soared in recent years, with the resulting climate-heating emissions rising by 50%, the most comprehensive global analysis to date has revealed.

The assessment tracked more than 25,000 private jets and almost 19m flights between 2019 and 2023. It found almost half the jets travelled less than 500km and 900,000 were used “like taxis” for trips of less than 50km. Many flights were for holidays, arriving in sunny locations in the summertime. The Fifa World Cup in Qatar in 2022 attracted more than 1,800 private flights.

Pollution is affecting the climate, biodiversity, ecosystems, ocean acidification and human health, according to analysis

Plastic pollution is changing the processes of the entire Earth system, exacerbating climate change, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, and the use of freshwater and land, according to scientific analysis.

Plastic must not be treated as a waste problem alone, the authors said, but as a product that poses harm to ecosystems and human health.

Warming climate has caused rivers used for transport to dry up, leaving children with little food, water or school access, says Unicef

Two years of severe drought in the Amazon rainforest have left nearly half a million children facing shortages of water and food or limited access to school, according to a UN report.

Scant rainfall and extreme heat driven by the climate crisis have caused rivers in what is usually the wettest region on Earth to retreat so much that they can no longer be traversed by boats, cutting off communities.

Voters have never been swayed by ‘rational debate’. Only a genuine change in the way we do politics can prevent the march of the right

We were losing slowly. Now we are losing quickly. Democracy, accountability, human rights, social justice – all were rolling backwards as money swarmed our politics. Above all, our life-support systems – the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, ecosystems, ice and snow – have been hammered and hammered, regardless of who is in power. Donald Trump might strike the killer blows, but he is not the cause of an ecocidal economic system. He is the embodiment of it.

Under Joe Biden, the US was missing its own climate goals, and those goals were insufficient to meet the global objective of limiting heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. That target in turn might not be tight enough to prevent a tipping of Earth systems. Already, at roughly 1.3C of heating, we see what looks alarmingly like climatic flickering: the ever wilder perturbations that tend to precede the collapse of a complex system.

George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist

One supports Zionism and the other is horrified by what is happening in Gaza. Could moving on to the climate crisis bring them closer together?

Maria, 53, Manchester

Occupation Recruitment director

Americans will be stuck cleaning up after Maga’s destructive streak because men like this never clean up after themselves

Our mistake was to think we lived in a better country than we do. Our mistake was to see the joy, the extraordinary balance between idealism and pragmatism, the energy, the generosity, the coalition-building of the Kamala Harris campaign and think that it must triumph over the politics of lies and resentment. Our mistake was to think that racism and misogyny were not as bad as they are, whether it applied to who was willing to vote for a supremely qualified Black woman or who was willing to vote for an adjudicated rapist and convicted criminal who admires Hitler. Our mistake was to think we could row this boat across the acid lake before the acid dissolved it.

We knew what the problems were, and we wanted to fix them. The principal problems that got us to this bleakest moment in American history are intertwined. They are the crisis of masculinity, the failure of the mainstream news media and the rise of Silicon Valley, and in a way they are all the same problem.

People urged to stop flow of misinformation as fire department says it is hindering work to save citizens

Home to more than 120 shops, a cinema and 34 restaurants, the Bonaire shopping centre had long been known as one of the largest in the Valencia region. After flood waters coursed through the municipality of Aldaia last week, it began making headlines for another reason: disinformation over the fate of its vast underground car park.

Online personalities, including one with more than 10 million followers, along with a prominent TV host and a far-right activist, seized on the fact that rescuers had been unable to enter the car park, falsely claiming that it contained hundreds – if not thousands – of bodies.

Copernicus Climate Change Service says 2024 marks ‘a new milestone’ and should raise ambitions at Cop29 summit

It is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, the European Union’s space programme has found.

The prognosis comes the week before diplomats meet at the Cop29 climate summit and a day after a majority of voters in the US, the biggest historical polluter of planet-heating gas, chose to make Donald Trump president.

How damaging this presidency is to the planet depends very much on how other countries react. There’s no time to waste

• US election 2024 live: latest news and updates
• US election results 2024: live map and tracker

Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House is a major setback for climate action but ultimately it’s the US that could end up losing out, as the rest of the world will move forward without it.

The US is the world’s biggest economy and its second biggest emitter. Positive US engagement on climate has been crucial to landmark leaps forward, like getting the Paris agreement over the line, and just last year committing to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The US missing in action in the latter half of this critical decade for climate action is nobody’s idea of a good outcome.

MEPs express concern for EU climate leadership as commission head confirms she will miss Baku summit

Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to miss the Cop29 climate summit is “a fatal signal” and raises questions about Europe’s commitment to the climate crisis, observers have said.

The European Commission confirmed on Tuesday that its president would not attend the UN climate talks in Baku, which start on Monday. “The commission is in a transition phase and the president will therefore focus on her institutional duties,” a spokesperson said.

Election of a ‘climate denier’ to US presidency poses ‘major threat to the planet’, environmentalists say

• US election 2024 – latest updates
• US election results 2024: live map and tracker
• Senate and House results 2024: live maps and tracker

Donald Trump’s new term as US president poses a grave threat to the planet if it blows up the international effort to curb dangerous global heating, stunned climate experts have warned in the wake of his decisive election victory.

Trump’s return to the White House is widely expected to result in the US, yet again, exiting the Paris climate agreement and may even remove American involvement in the underpinning United Nations framework to deal with the climate crisis.

Trump wins the presidency – how did it happen?

Republicans retake control of the Senate

Abortion ballot measure results by state

The Murrumbidgee River had 55% less water in 2018 than it did in 1988, with the Lowbidgee flood plain hardest hit

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A section of one of Australia’s longest rivers, the Murrumbidgee, lost more than half of its water over a 30-year period due to dams and other diversions, according to new research.

Scientists at the University of New South Wales examined the impacts of dam infrastructure and irrigation on natural water flows in the lower Murrumbidgee River since 1890.

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Millionaire points to Broken Hill’s blackout to attack the energy transition but experts say he should look at South Australia and Europe

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For 15 minutes on Sunday morning, ABC local radio listeners were treated to a rant from Dick Smith as the millionaire attacked Australia’s transition away from fossil fuels, claiming renewables would make electricity unaffordable and cause sweeping blackouts.

“It seems we have been sold a pup and we are not getting the full truth all the time,” responded Ian McNamara, the host of Australia All Over. “There are lots of people who will back you up.”