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Okay, here's the crazy water wheel thing as I understood it:

1) It's an improbable assembly because while a wheel is a somewhat predictable shape, a wheel with a bucket attacked to it is not predictable. Throwing those ingredients together would be unlikely to yield the same result.

2) Once the water starts flowing, the wheel is moving downwards, because of gravity/the water pushing it. It's doing something we'd predict it to do, so it's now more probable.

3) BUT! That bucket is still on there. If the bucket is attached to the wheel, it's going to move as the wheel does. And if the bucket is on the bottom of the wheel (which it is), when the water pushes the wheel it makes the bucket move upwards, which is NOT something we would expect to happen. A bucket moving upwards, instead of the predictable and usual direction of downwards, makes it improbable.

Therefore, the wheel is moving down (probable), and the bucket is moving up (improbable), so both an improbable and probable assembly is happening at once.

Please comment if that is incorrect.