The Guardian Climate Change

Insurers are taking on more risk than they should. If – or when – a major disaster hits, the catastrophe will have far-reaching consequences

I work for a major insurer, assessing the risk posed by natural disasters on properties around the world, from family homes to schools, government offices and multibillion-dollar commercial centres. The world is facing greater risk than ever from extreme weather. We are not prepared – and that inaction could have profound consequences for the global financial system.

In the face of ever more extreme and unpredictable climate risks, I am coming under pressure to cut my forecasts for the losses that disasters will cause in order to make insurance more affordable – and get my employer more business. In some instances, the questioning of our numbers and models is justified. But too often, it is not being done to produce more accurate models, but to artificially lower prices. If this is happening at my firm, which is struggling to compete with rivals’ prices, it’s happening elsewhere.

The writer is a modeller working in the insurance industry. A version of this piece originally appeared with the Bureau of Investigative Journalism as part of their Secret Source series, a regular column featuring industry whistleblowers

Hundreds of people displaced in Bangka Belitung with conditions described as worst in a decade with wildlife also badly hit

A forest fire on Indonesia’s Sumatra island fuelled by El Niño has razed nearly 300 homes, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate, an official has said, as the country battles devastating blazes and haze.

Residents first spotted the fire approaching their village in Bangka Belitung province on Saturday and tried to put it out themselves with portable water pumps, said the head of South Bangka regency, Riza Herdavid.

Team works to restore the sunflower sea star as 95% of these key underwater ecosystems have been decimated along the Pacific coast in past decade

Off the coast of Monterey, California, a team of researchers is gearing up for its first dive of the day into the cold and choppy waters of the Pacific Ocean.

On the back deck of the boat, Ashley Kidd, a co-founder of the non-profit Sunflower Star Laboratory, gave the divers their final command: “Dive No 1 … stars in the water.”

Exclusive: Homes demolished along east coast after being deemed too vulnerable to live in, figures reveal

Seaside communities along the east coast of England have lost at least 183 homes to coastal erosion and landslides over the past 16 years, figures obtained by the Guardian reveal.

After councils judged properties across the Yorkshire and East Anglian coasts too vulnerable to remain safely occupied, the homes were proactively demolished.

Olympic Park records high of 35.2C after Rural Fire Service warned of high fire danger across city

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A total fire ban was in place across greater Sydney on Monday with temperatures soaring above 35C in the city’s west.

The Bureau of Meteorology said Sydney faced extreme fire danger due to hot, dry conditions and the chance of thunderstorms, with little rainfall.

Food producers are adding their voices to the chorus of warnings about the vulnerability of British supply chains

“There are so many decent, capable, productive, efficient arable farmers out there, asking how they are supposed to finance the crop they are meant to be putting in the ground,” Jamie Burrows says.

Sitting in his tractor at his arable farm in Norfolk, Burrows is listing the multiple challenges facing him and other food producers.

Tories plan to scrap low-carbon housebuilding, Greens back new nuclear reactors, and Labour put oil-drilling decisions on hold

New homes could be built without solar panels, heat pumps and high-grade insulation, leading to higher household bills if the Conservative party wins the next general election.

Kemi Badenoch made scrapping the future homes standard (FHS) one of the central planks of her bid to become the next prime minister at the Tory party conference this week.

Liability lawsuits have held tobacco, oil and pharma companies to account in the past. AI investors won’t ignore this threat

The most basic function of government is to protect people from harm. Two growing phenomena – the climate crisis and AI – pose escalating risks of extraordinary harm.

The climate crisis is already causing floods, wildfires, drought and record heat. AI agents are already escaping super-secure environments to hack into systems they’re supposed to avoid.

Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a Guardian US columnist and his newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com. His new book, Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America, is out now in the US and in the UK

The strongest El Niño recorded is expected to bring a cascade of hazards to a state still facing wildfire and heat risks, while budget cuts have weakened disaster response agencies

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Before this year, the US National Weather Service had never issued a September coastal flood advisory for the San Francisco Bay Area. In the past month, it has had to issue two.

As flood water swallowed intersections and eroded beaches up and down the California coast last week, scientists and emergency managers warned that this is just an early signal of a coming tumultuous winter as an already exceptional El Niño continues to strengthen. It’s been called everything from “super” to “Godzilla”, as forecasters hammer home the message that conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean could soon climb off the charts, and fuel extreme weather around the world.

Comebacks for wild tigers, tuna and sea turtles prove nature loss can be reversed, scientists say

Revealed: the methane mega-leaks from UN climate summit host Turkey

To cull or not to cull: Greenland debates fate of world’s slowest shark

A new global biodiversity report strikes an encouraging note. But we cannot rest on our laurels – and resilience is key

The new Living Planet Report is out. Published every two years, it assesses the health of the natural world and, historically, it’s made for gloomy reading.

Take 2024’s report, which showed global wildlife populations had plummeted by 73% in 50 years and that ecosystems were being pushed toward collapse.

Inquest under way into why President Lula’s success in curbing Amazon deforestation has not led to success at polls

More fire, more ash, more crime, more death. And a globally important ecosystem driven ever more rapidly towards a point of no return. That is the prospect for the Amazon rainforest for at least the next four years if Flávio Bolsonaro holds on to the lead he established this week in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election.

This appears to be of far more concern to the outside world than to voters in Latin America’s biggest, richest and most biodiverse nation.

Most Australian capital cities have at least 80% chance of unusually warm and dry spring as climatologists watch developing system with increasing alarm

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The El Niño climate phenomenon linked to record global temperatures and now locked in place in the Pacific Ocean could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

Climatologists are watching the strengthening El Niño with increasing alarm, saying the forecasts from climate models in the coming months are “mind blowing” and “astounding”.

R-Urban Poplar in London is a ‘living lab’ where locals can experiment with ways of taking charge of their food supply

On a stiflingly hot and dusty morning at the height of the summer’s third heatwave, traffic thunders down the A12 arterial route through east London. A high, red-brick wall rises by the road. What few passersby will realise is that this ivy-topped wall shelters an urban oasis, within which sits an unprecedented sustainable project.

The world’s first “community powered” sauna – heated by food waste from residents of the neighbouring housing estate – is set to open here.

Smoke from more than 100 active wildfires in northern Ontario have made Toronto’s air quality the current worst in the world and caused yellow, smoky air in cities across the north-east US. 'You could definitely smell the smoke in the air and it's very hazy out. So absolutely it's noticeable,' says Toronto resident Paula Oreskovich

• Wildfires in Ontario make Toronto air quality worst in world

• Extreme temperature warnings in place as ‘heat dome’ bakes US

Video footage of a train near the community of Armstrong, Ontario, highlights the speed and ferocity of one of more than 100 wildfires currently burning in Canada. 'This could potentially overtake us here … This has gotten a little scary,' says a crew member as a wall of flames whips across the windows. 'We’re encased in flames now.' The railway company Canadian National confirmed the crew has been 'safely evacuated' from the area

• Wildfires in Ontario make Toronto air quality worst in world

Adaptation to frightening new normal and reducing emissions further and faster is critical, scientists warn

Dozens of people drowned, hundreds had to be rescued and thousands were displaced when floods struck the coasts of west Africa last month.

Now scientists have concluded that the rains that caused the floods were supercharged by climate breakdown. Global heating, they say, turned what should have been a routine weather event into a climate catastrophe.

Environment Canada has issued health warnings after sky over city turns yellow

Smoke from more than 100 active wildfires in northern Ontario have made Toronto’s air quality the current worst in the world and caused yellow, smoky air in cities across the north-east US.

Environment Canada issued health warnings on Wednesday after the sky over country’s largest city turned a sickly yellow and was ranked the worst in the world according to IQAir, the Swiss technology company that racks global air quality.

The next great climate divide will be between countries that have the resources to adapt and those that don’t

This summer, much of the media’s attention has focused on record temperatures across Europe and the United States. Television coverage has been filled with familiar images: heat maps shaded deep red, schools closing, rail lines slowing, wildfires spreading and emergency rooms treating growing numbers of people with heat-related illnesses.

Public officials have responded with equally familiar advice: stay indoors, drink plenty of water and, if possible, turn on the air conditioning.

Peat bogs are essential to the environment, holding twice as much carbon as all the world’s forests. But in the UK, 80% are damaged, most of what is extracted is used in horticulture – and some campaigners fear the problem is getting worse

‘I don’t see how I can possibly do my job and eat mushrooms,” says Sally Nex, a campaign advocate for the Peat-Free Partnership. “An awful lot of the food you buy in the supermarket is grown in peat: field mushrooms and little button mushrooms, salads and many brassicas, herbs in pots … all of those have started in peat.”

I’m taken aback. I’ve bought peat-free compost for years, but I’d never considered “hidden” peat. “I would imagine that most people are buying peat-free compost at the moment – certainly, you only have to go into a garden centre to see the amount of peat-free options you now have,” says Nex. “But you may not realise that an awful lot – probably most – of the plants that are on sale in that garden centre are also grown in peat.”

Mayor of London backs calls from unions to update health and safety rules in light of more frequent heatwaves

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is backing calls for a maximum workplace temperature as pressure grows on the government to protect workers from the impact of repeated heatwaves across the UK.

The extreme heat has left people struggling to cope as temperatures in some workplaces climb above 40C, causing thousands of schools to close and hospital and transport systems to break down.